Lost year in the economy..
I write about Turkey’s economy for a long time, because the incoming data was meaningless. For example, the number of tourists decreased by 99% in April compared to the same month of the previous year. Well, of course it falls. There is a flight ban. However, the first data from May shows that the recovery in the economy has started. This is normal. When the number of Covid-19 cases is reduced and the restrictions are relaxed, economic activity will recover. But guessing it doesn’t require skill. In fact, it is not necessary to be an economist to estimate that iptv bayilik June data will be much better than May. Being able to make reasonable comments about the course of the economy in 3Q and 4Q.
Based on the data released last week, my opinion on the epidemic and the policy priorities of the government, I made a modest, mixed analysis. Since my articles about the economy are interpreted as “technical”, “boring”, “unreadable”, let me give you the short story, hang on your bedside. This year is the lost year in the economy. I expect at least 5% GDP contraction. I can say that the growth in 2021, 2022 and 2023 cannot exceed 1–2%.
Of course, “say” easy, such as the so-called donor tire economic data can be pulled in all directions damn numbers forza iptv and Turkey “politics” called mud from the sea provable, it is difficult to remove a rational review. I will speak based on the evidence as much as I can.
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First, economic interpretation is not made without predicting the course of the outbreak and the political environment. Those who do not buy a fortress. Sample? Our president gets up one morning and releases 1,500 pens of import tax. “We will never be merciful to those who missed foreign currency abroad,” he says, departing the next morning. Yahu, investing abroad in this country is secured by law, right? While you accept the gold and foreign currency that come with a suitcase without question and are unquestionable and mediate the laundering of en ucuz iptv bayilik cocaine-prostitution money, is it good when our citizen “wants to distribute portfolio risk”?
Recovery and development in the economy takes place if there are predictable rules that serve the interests of the majority, rarely and change in force majeure situations. Since this is the Deli Dumrul regime, it creates uncertainty in high doses and catatonic all actors of the economy.
So let me tell you right away. Early election in autumn is the most likely scenario. Let me give you the average I compiled from all “branded” surveys. At this stage, I do not find it iptv appropriate to distribute the undecided parties according to the raw vote rate. Many members of the opposition who are afraid of getting stuck in phone polls probably say “I am indecisive” or “I will not vote”.
As it is seen, currently the raw vote of AKP-MHP has decreased to 42.5%. More than half of those undecided have to get their votes so that the election wins. That’s why the AKP government is trying to quickly normalize the economy and save time against a balance of payments crisis by reducing foreign currency outflow. iptv bayilik But he will not succeed and his votes will drop even more in the summer. Sensing that he will not be able to win an election with the economy, which remained in the recession until 2023, my President will try his luck for the last time by distributing the CBRT and TVF resources to the public. During this process, the last dynamite delight will be connected to the foundations of the economy.
How? Despite all the make-up first, the rapidly growing budget deficit is based on 7% of the national income at the end of the year. You can not finance it from the outside, because now all of a fund manager does not want Turkey to move financial assets. If you borrow money from banks inside, they will not be able to give loans. Therefore, the CBRT will print money. TVF will support the election campaign in other ways, for example, by purchasing sinking companies.
My most likely scenario for inflation to climb the 12–14% band in summer and autumn. Because the supply side has still not recovered. the cost increasing effect of social distance constraints in production, the cost of tourism in the reflection of the defeat and the most important import tax now Turkey is producing less than the general price level. As long as private consumption and fixed capital güvenilir iptv investment are weak, this is dis-inflationary. However, if we increase the money supply at this rate, it will either run away to foreign currency and experience a severe exchange rate shock, or it will bring inflation to the demand for goods and services.
Is the outbreak over? I wouldn’t have had it, Professor of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, HACETTEPE University Faculty of Medicine. Dr. Let’s listen to Mehmet Ceyhan:
“The decrease in the number of cases is of course very important. But even if the number is 0, we are not safe. This only means that you are safe among the testers. Since we don’t know who is carrying the virus outside without testing, there is no such thing as ‘for sure’. For example, while the number of cases went to 0 for 37 days in Vuhan, kaliteli iptv positive cases emerged again. Remember that the pandemic curves are similar to the mountain. Previously, the skirt was slanted. Then it becomes steep. Similarly on landing. If you land fast, you will encounter resistance. In order to break the resistance, it is necessary to find and treat asymptomatic cases. We live in that period. After that, there will be 200–300 cases every day, but the process is not over. ”
